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Guo Liyan, Institute of Economics, China Macroeconomic Research Institute: It is a long-term and fundamental policy to continuously promote the construction of ultra-large-scale domestic market. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said in an interview that expanding domestic demand in an all-round way and continuously promoting the construction of super-large-scale domestic market are not just temporary measures to cope with risks and external shocks, but long-term and fundamental measures to promote Chinese modernization. The key is to boost consumption and improve the efficiency of investment, so that effective investment and potential consumption can form a virtuous cycle promotion mechanism, thereby consolidating and enhancing the main role of domestic demand in supporting the national economic cycle, and giving full play to the powerful supporting role of domestic demand for high-quality economic development and higher-level participation in international competition and cooperation. (The country is a through train) The European Central Bank predicts that inflation will decline in 2025, and the European Central Bank currently predicts that inflation will cool down slightly faster than predicted in September. The bank's latest forecast shows that the average inflation rate in 2024 and 2025 is 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, while the previous forecast is 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. After cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, the European Central Bank said in a statement: "The anti-inflation process is on the right track." The bank said: "Domestic inflation has declined slightly, but it is still at a high level, mainly because wages and prices in some industries are still adapting to the past inflation surge, but there is a great delay." The European Central Bank maintains its inflation forecast of 1.9% in 2026, and predicts that the average inflation rate in 2027 will be 2.1%.

Israel used drones to attack the town of Shyam, a major town in southern Lebanon. On the 12th, local time, the reporter of the General Station learned that Israel used drones to launch an attack in the town of Shyam, a major town in southern Lebanon. Preliminary reports show that some people were injured in the incident. (CCTV News)European Central Bank President Lagarde: Reiterating the European Central Bank policy statement.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.

The dollar index DXY fell more than 20 points in the short term and is now reported at 106.58. Non-US currencies collectively rose, with GBP/USD of GBP rising by more than 20 points, EUR/USD of EUR/USD of EUR/USD rising by about 20 points and USD/JPY of USD/JPY rising by about 50 points.Market News: The Director of the Federal Aviation Administration will step down on January 20th.Spot gold fell by $5 in the short term and is now reported at $2,704 per ounce.